Year-End Confidence Returns: This Week Signals Strength Going Into 2026

Monday Morning Brief: Week of December 29, 2025

U.S. stock markets wrapped 2025 on a strong note, with major indexes hitting new record highs as the Santa Claus Rally kicked off. Investors embraced tech leadership and year-end optimism amid calm holiday trading.
Jobless claims fell more than expected, suggesting continued labor market resilience despite slowed hiring.
Holiday-season trading remained thin in liquidity, with crypto markets steady and investors cautious ahead of macro data.
M&A activity continued to make headlines, from big tech acquisitions to strategic divestitures and energy sector deals.
Earnings activity was modest in the holiday week — FedEx beat expectations on its latest report, while other firms showed mixed results.

Market Trends (as of Dec. 26 weekly close)

U.S. equities climbed into a holiday-shortened session: the S&P 500 and Dow Jones hit new record closes, while tech and financials led gains.
The Nasdaq also posted weekly gains, buoyed by AI megacaps and growth stocks.
Russell 2000 small caps outperformed broader benchmarks, signaling renewed appetite for diversified equity exposure.
Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin remained steady around $88K — a reflection of thin liquidity and cautious positioning during the holidays.

Key Economic Indicators

Jobless Claims: U.S. initial claims fell to 214,000, beating expectations and indicating layoffs remain limited, though ongoing claims rose slightly.
Labor Market: The labor market shows a “no hire, no fire” dynamic — jobs data are stable, but hiring momentum is weak.
Consumer Confidence: Confidence has been softening, with consumer sentiment indexes below expectations, suggesting cautious spending.
Macro Data Flow: The holiday week included delayed GDP and durable goods reports, keeping investors focused on growth momentum and labor trends.

Economic Reports

Weekly Jobless Claims: Fell more than expected — a positive signal for layoffs but continued subdued hiring conditions.
Third-quarter GDP & Macro Data: Delayed releases — including GDP, durable-goods orders, and consumer confidence — kept investors watching for clarity on economic momentum.

Earnings Highlights

FedEx (FDX): Reported strong 2Q fiscal 2026 revenue and earnings above expectations, and raised outlook — lifted shares modestly.
Other Corporate News:
- HEICO reported positive earnings and jumped on strong results.
- Carnival Corp. beat expectations, while Conagra missed revenue estimates.
- The broader earnings calendar was relatively light due to the holidays.

Market Momentum & Sentiment

Record equity highs and the Santa Claus Rally reflect confidence in growth themes (especially AI and technology leaders), which can influence capital allocation decisions and risk tolerance across portfolios.

Labor Market Signals

Falling jobless claims alongside weak hiring cues point to a transition phase — businesses may find opportunities in stable labor costs but also need strategies for growth amid cautious employment trends.

M&A & Strategic Moves

Big deals in cybersecurity, cloud, and energy show that strategic acquisitions remain a priority for growth and technological edge. Whether enhancing AI security stacks or refocusing energy portfolios, these moves are shaping competitive landscapes into 2026.

Earnings & Performance

Even in slow holiday reporting, companies outperforming expectations can signal sector leadership and resilience, while misses offer cautionary signals about consumer demand and cost pressures.

Reevaluate Growth Playbooks: Assess your organization’s exposure to AI, cloud, and emerging technologies — where market leadership and valuation are concentrated.
Monitor Labor Trends: Use jobless claims and confidence data to refine hiring and workforce planning strategies for the year ahead.
Capitalize on M&A Insights: Explore strategic alliances or acquisition targets that could deliver scale or capability enhancements in your industry.
Review Portfolio Positions: For investors and business leaders alike, align equity and sector allocations with current market momentum and risk-reward considerations.
Prepare for 2026 Data Releases: Keep an eye on early January economic reports and central bank signals as liquidity returns and markets reset after the holidays.